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Research Review: Identify Successful ICO

With more than a thousand coins in the current crypto market, there might be an analytical approach to guide us through its diversity. In brevity, this research identifies the four criteria for successful ICO:

  1. The Expectation of High Return from the Company
  2. Flexibility of Regulation
  3. Availability on an Online Platform and Price Transparency
  4. Social Responsibility

Besides the qualitative analysis, this research shows the key characteristics that can quantify the ICO success probability. The white-paper factor alone can increase the estimation accuracy by 22.4 times. For fraud detection, a generalized extreme values (GEV) model which tracks the presence of a website and a Twitter account in addition to the number of team members and advisors catches some bad intentions.

Unstructured data can also enhance the prediction. A simple bag-of-words approach on Telegram chats seems to be able to generate identifiable sentiment measure on good ICO.

We look forward to a similar analysis of security token offering (STO).

ICO Success Drivers: A Textual and Statistical Analysis, P. Cerchiello, P. Tasca, and A. M. Toma, The Journal of Alternative Investments, 21 (4)

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