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Quant Investing : Hedge Interest Rate Risk in High Inflation Environment – 中文

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本文藉由存續期間匹配的觀念,發展以存續期間相似之公債與抗通膨債券進行買賣操作的策略。此策略可有效消除殖利率曲線變動對於抗通膨債券報酬的影響,只留下通貨膨脹的因素,因此適合在高通膨期間操作。

In the previous work Inflation-Protected Bond Rotation Strategy. We introduce an inflation indicator to form a bond allocation strategy under different environments, and we recommend holding inflation-protected treasuries in high inflation situations. However, during 2021, although the CPI index rises from 1.3% in January to 5.4% in July and has stayed at a high standard since then, the year-to-date return of the Treasury Inflation-Protected Security (TIPS) performs relatively flat compared to the increase in CPI index. In this report, we will discuss the reason behind it and provide a better operation to conquer the low return situation.

The driving factors of TIPS’ return are both interest rate and inflation. In our research, the correlation between mid-term inflation-protected Treasury ETF (TIP) return and 7-Year interest rate variation is -0.83 while the correlation between TIP’s return and mid-term inflation proxy is 0.21. The interest rate variation has more influence than the inflation part in TIP’s return.

Based on the findings, we try to develop a way to eliminate the interest rate risk. Using the idea of duration, which represents interest rate risk, and duration matching, a strategy is used to manage interest rate risk. We present a simple strategy that long the inflation-protected Treasury ETF and short the normal Treasury ETF with a similar duration. The strategy has two combinations: the combined-long-term strategy and the combined-mid-term strategy. Below we show the performance of the two combined strategies and the ETFs in 2021. The combined strategy has a higher and more stable return than inflation-protected treasury only, and both approaches bring a superior Sharpe ratio compared to individual ETFs.

TIPVGITCombined_midLTPZVGLTCombined_long
Annual Return5.73%-2.43%8.16%5.64%-7.35%12.99%
Volatility4.53%2.90%3.09%12.20%12.41%7.77%
Sharpe Ratio1.26-0.842.640.46-0.591.67
Performance in 2021


Contact us at info@gammaparadigm.com for the full report.

Petty Chen
AVP of Quantitative FinanceGamma Paradigm Research
LinkedIn


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